Alberta could drift away from Canada, not in anger but in resignation.
The idea this province would do just that is summarily dismissed by what we might kindly describe as the Canadian establishment. To those self-important folk, separation is nothing more than an idle threat, one only appealing to a fringe subset, composed of ignorant and angry rubes.
Well, a recent poll by the well-respected Leger group showed separation sentiment is strong in our province, with 47 per cent leaning towards leaving Canada, with 48 per cent against such a dramatic move. Heck, that’s no fringe.
It's only fair to point out that strong support for leaving at 18 per cent is dwarfed by the 38 per cent of Albertans strongly opposed.
Yet it wouldn’t be too big a leap to suspect the 29 per cent of folk somewhat in favour of going it alone are probably waiting to see what happens in the next few months before deciding if to climb about this emotional separation bandwagon as a fully paid up member.
The pertinent question is will Mark Carney’s Liberal government follow through on promises to fast track industrial development and make Canada an energy superpower? If so the separation balloon will burst. Such a show of good faith is all it takes to turn this rising tide
But Grit promises are like piecrusts: easily broken. Sure, the recent rhetoric from Carney and company sounds fine and dandy, but we’ve suffered through so many false dawns in Alberta that another won’t be countenanced.
Actually, those people now describing themselves as somewhat in favour have already crossed the Rubicon by actually considering splitting. That’s a huge leap. So another disappointment, courtesy of the Central Canadian elite, could provide the push transforming this current cohort of Albertans into full-blown separatists.
OK, but how does such a close tally on separation jive with another Leger finding, one showing seven of 10 Albertans are attached to Canada? Doesn’t that mean separation’s a dud: that a large majority in this province are proud Canadians and love this land.
Well, no and yes.
The idea people won’t leave behind what they love is a fallacy. We do it all the time. It’s a basic human trait.
Does a young person leaving home suddenly decide his parents are monsters? Does an immigrant to Canada board a plane despising the land from which they’re leaving? No, of course not. In fact such individuals likely discover a keener appreciation about what and who they’re leaving behind than they’ve ever experienced before. Yet they still leave.
Or, in more turbulent circumstances, how many spouses have walked out the door on a troubled marriage, still in love with their partner yet realizing things can no longer go on this way? That it is time to start anew, no matter the obvious and difficult hurdles such a dramatic move entails?
And how many people, who love their work, eventually say goodbye to the company because it offers so very little as their future goes?
In short, loving Canada doesn’t mean Albertans won’t leave it.
So, the months ahead offer two paths. The first, and by far the best, would be for the Carney government to follow through on its implied zeal and cut a new path. It doesn’t have to give Alberta all it wants, but it must walk some of that talk.
The second is imagining this separation chatter is simply a silly bluff; that the perceived difficulties ahead alongside a passionate attachment to Canada will persuade all but that infamous fringe to meekly accept the status quo.
It’s 50-50 folks. Alberta could go.
Chris Nelson is a syndicated columnist.
