St. Albert and the rest of Central Alberta can expect a mixed bag of weather heading into July, but overall, conditions are expected to be close to seasonal averages, according to Environment Canada meteorologist Matt Loney.
"It seems the rain is coming at good intervals," said Loney. "There's not overland flooding, and the ground can absorb it."
Looking ahead, Loney said long-range forecasts suggest central Alberta will experience near-normal to slightly above-normal temperatures in early July, with near-normal precipitation.
"For the first week of July, I'm seeing temperatures near to perhaps slightly above normal," Loney said.
The second week is expected to bring near-normal temperatures and precipitation, with the third week potentially cooler than usual. By the end of the month, conditions could shift toward above-normal temperatures and precipitation. However, Loney emphasized that precipitation forecasts are difficult to predict accurately.
"It's [precipitation] almost like a flip of the coin whether it actually works out," he said. "And whereas temperature, you can usually be, you can be more certain that it'll work out. But it looks kind of like a near-normal July for both temperature and precipitation."
Loney said Albertans should expect daytime highs around 22 C at the start of July, gradually rising to about 24 C by mid-July. However, fluctuations are likely to happen.
"We might see spells with extremes, in the high 20s, and then another episode of lower 20s," Loney said. "It doesn't look to me like there is any major signal of any major warming or cooling [events], either way, in Western Canada."
On July 2, Environment Canada issued a heat warning for St. Albert, as temperatures are expected to rise to a high of 31 C, before dropping back into the low 20s for the rest of the week.
Loney said that it is harder to predict what the precipitation for the month will look like.
"Whether it's going to be above or below normal or near normal, it doesn't really account for how that precipitation is arriving," said Loney. "Whether it's going to be through any thunderstorms or through organized bands of precipitation associated with these larger-scale storms that might come across from British Columbia."
He explained that this is due to the instability of the weather in the summertime, which makes it hard to predict when we will get rain more than four or five days in advance.
For those hoping for good weather during their summer vacations, Loney advises making plans and then checking the forecast four to five days in advance to know what to expect.
"You always make your plans, and then we always keep ourselves informed. And in the lead up to within the three to five day timeframe, we can get a much better — there's more certainty about what's going to actually arrive," said Loney. "The weather is, as we know in Canada, variable in the summertime, or can be variable, so we prepare for ourselves as we're heading out the door."
Looking back on June, central Alberta has seen below-normal precipitation and temperatures. Loney reported 70 millimetres of rain so far this June, down from the seasonal average of 77 millimetres. June 2024 also recorded below-normal rainfall, with just 67 millimetres.
Temperatures this June have averaged 14.5 C, slightly below the seasonal norm of 15.3 C. In June 2024, the monthly average was 15.5 C.
Overall, while July may bring its share of ups and downs, Environment Canada expects a typical Alberta summer.
